Alliances and Antagonisms: The ‘Enigma’ of Nitish Kumar?

“Political winds change…” Signor Stronzo Troia indicated.

Those ‘political winds’ stir to feed their financially hungry pockets.

Those ‘political winds’ stir toward where they can extract or beg funds, and strongest political backing to serve their political agenda, especially years before an upcoming election.

These lines from Book-2 of the Stronzata Trilogy, authored by the Philippine-born Swiss author, Angelica Hopes, drive home the point that the political circumstances in the state of Bihar are not something out of the blue. For the ninth time, Nitish Kumar was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Bihar, on the 28th of January 2024. During the time of various elections in the recent past, indications of EVM tampering, observed in the allegations of the opposition leaders and recorded claims of parliamentarians and legislators, like that of incumbent Nizamabad MP Dharmapuri Arvind and former Assandh MLA Bakhshish Singh Virk, that whichever party symbol’s button is pressed, the vote goes to the Bharatiya Janata Party. Today, Bihar’s voters are faced with a similar dilemma. Whichever symbol’s button is pressed, the individual on the Chief Minister’s Chair would only be Nitish Kumar.

Bihar has witnessed a score of political upheavals in recent years. The recent dent into the Bharatiya Janata Party’s 2024 Lok Sabha Elections’ prospects was due to the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) in 2023. The Janata Dal (United)’s inclusion in the alliance was a turning point, as a major partner, being led by the likes of Nitish Kumar, who chaired the first meeting of 17 Opposition parties on the 23rd of June 2023 at the historic city of Patna. Cut short to January 2024, with around four to five months left for the Lok Sabha elections, Nitish Kumar again flipped to the camp of the National Democratic Alliance, for a fifth time. The ease with which Nitish Kumar switches political sides has become a matter of public humour, as he is described by monikers such as ‘Paltu Ram’ and ‘Kursi Kumar.’ This has generated public outcry to such an extent that even the incumbent Lok Sabha MP and former National Vice President of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Dilip Ghosh, called Nitish Kumar out saying that “I think this is nothing but political opportunism and it is high time that such things must stop.” Ghosh further mocked the Bihar CM by commenting that, “A politician usually takes oath as CM once during a five-year term. But Nitish Kumar is such a politician who takes oath at least twice or thrice during a five-year term, and that too from different camps each time.” As images of the swearing-in ceremony of Nitish Kumar for a 9th term as the Chief Minister of Bihar surfaced on social media, there were lots of mixed reactions which the event evoked. A cursory glance at the sentiment analysis of such comments would reveal the negative trends associated with it, as social media users objected that Nitish Kumar should not feel the need to read the oath from a piece of paper, as he would have already memorised the entire text by now.

On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party has also swiftly changed its narrative on Nitish Kumar. Earlier, several citizens had raised concerns about Nitish Kumar’s remarks on ‘family planning’ at the Bihar Vidhan Sabha on the 7th of November 2023, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi vehemently criticised the remarks, primarily characterising Nitish Kumar as “the flag-bearer of the I.N.D.I. Alliance.” Similarly, the Home Minister Amit Shah had also announced that the doors of the Bharatiya Janata Party  were forever closed for Nitish Kumar in Bihar. Samrat Chaudhary, the President of Bharatiya Janata Party’s Bihar State Unit, had also vowed in July 2023 during the Monsoon Session of the Bihar Vidhan Sabha, that he would not remove the ‘Muretha’ (turban) from his head, until Nitish Kumar is removed from the Chief Minister’s Chair.

Today, Samrat Chaudhary is the Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar, along with Vijay Kumar Sinha, under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Indeed, it might be an edge-of-the-seat thriller for political observers to note that the same man who helped form the Opposition I.N.D.I. Alliance is now a kingmaker in the current N.D.A. Union Government. On the 28th of January, after Nitish Kumar was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Bihar, allying with the N.D.A. for government formation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Nitish Kumar and said that the N.D.A. government in Bihar will ensure the “development of the state and fulfilment of people’s aspirations.”

Time and again, various public commentators claim that Nitish Kumar’s ascension to the post of Bihar’s Chief Minister, and his first major tenure of 2005-10, resulted in a substantial decrease in the number of criminal activities, and improvements were observed in the maintenance of law and order. Claims were made that there was a significant departure in incidents threatening public law and order, as witnessed during the ‘Jungle Raj’ of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, under the leadership of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi. According to statistics from the National Crime Records Bureau, during Rabri Devi’s final year in office in 2004, the crime rate (under IPC) in Bihar stood at 122.4 per lakh population. By 2022, this figure had risen to 168.1, marking a 37.3% increase over the past 19 years. 

Similarly, a lot of praise is awarded to Nitish Kumar’s continuous tenure for developments in the sector of education. He has been especially viewed favourably for the implementation of certain schemes and policies related to the development and welfare of female education. However, data speaks otherwise. Bihar has the fourth worst Gender Parity Index of 0.92 in Higher Education (18 – 23 years) amongst all the states and UTs of India, which means that there are only 92 female students for every 100 male students in Higher Education in Bihar. More importantly, despite successive state governments claiming adequate representation of marginalised castes and communities, the Gender Parity Index of 0.72 for Scheduled Castes in Higher Education in Bihar is the lowest in the entire country. Overall, in the education sector, Bihar also has the worst Pupil Teacher Ratio of 69:1 in Higher Education amongst all the states and UTs of India. In response to queries from DMK MP Kalanidhi Veeraswamy in the Lok Sabha in December 2023, the Union Minister of Education, Dharmendra Pradhan, stated that the dropout rate in Class 10 in India was 49.9% for Odisha and 42.1% for Bihar, the worst-performing states, compared to the national average of 20.6%. 

Although being positively termed as ‘Sushasan Babu’ (Mr. Good Governance), Nitish Kumar and his long tenure portray a picture far from the reality of such an epithet. His political manoeuvring might be benefiting him in all these years, but it has certainly cost the voters of Bihar a very dear price. Evidently, the state of agriculture, environment, employment, education, health, and other sectors in Bihar has also been heavily impacted by such frequent change of ‘political winds’, with modifications in schemes and policies, which leads to recurrent instabilities. Large target groups, such as women and children, bear the brunt of such political overtures. Political strategist-turned-leader and founder of the Jan Suraaj Abhiyan, Prashant Kishor, once remarked during his Padyatra’s Press Conference at the GD College, Begusarai, that the JD(U) would not secure more than 20 seats, at any cost, in the upcoming 2025 Bihar Vidhan Sabha Elections. Prashant Kishor further emphasised that irrespective of whichever alliance the JD(U) would be a part of, it would still not cross the figure, and if it does, he would retire from politics. However, it is important to note that even ‘brilliant’ strategists can be fallible, as evidenced by Prashant Kishor’s recent miscalculation regarding the BJP’s seat count in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.As I walk up on the streets of Patna where I reside, the young salesman at my grocery store vents out his frustration for the current situation in the form of expletives directed towards the Honourable Chief Minister of Bihar. No wonder, a large section of the social media users, comprising the youth population, relate to the viral internet meme in which former MLA of the Mokama Vidhan Sabha constituency, Anant Singh, reacts with a fleeting expletive to a reporter’s question on whether the claims of a ‘Sushasan ka Sarkar’ in the state of Bihar were true.