2024 Election Results: A primer on India’s four largest states
Ajinkya Mhalsane is a seasoned socio-political consultant with five years of experience in the field. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics and a master’s degree in Development from two of India’s premier institutions. As a consultant, he has successfully managed high-profile clients and collaborated with a diverse range of stakeholders, including electoral representatives, civil society organizations, government officials, and media professionals. Ajinkya has led multiple teams in four different states, demonstrating his leadership and adaptability. His professional interests lie at the intersection of politics, democracy, governance, and policy. Ajinkya is continually seeking opportunities to grow and create a positive impact in these areas.
A glance into India’s 4 largest States in terms of Parliamentary Seats
1. Maharashtra
| Maharashtra | ||
| Party | Vote Share in 2024 | Gain/Loss of seats as compared to 2019 GE |
| Bharatiya Janta Party | 26.18% | -14 |
| Shiv Sena | 12.95% | -6 |
| Shiv Sena- UBT | 16.72% | +5 |
| Nationalist Congress Party | 3.60% | -1 |
| Nationalist Congress Party- SP | 10.27% | +6 |
| Indian National Congress | 16.92% | +13 |
| AIMIM | 0.61% | -1 |
- Vidarbha Region’s Rejection of BJP: In the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) secured victory in seven, while the ruling Mahayuti coalition won three. [1]
- Sharad Pawar’s Stronghold in Western Maharashtra: Sharad Pawar’s party maintained its hold in Western Maharashtra. Most talked Baramati seat was retained by Supriya Sule with the winning margin of 1.5 lakh votes.
- Interesting fight in Mumbai North West: In the Mumbai North West constituency, approximately 14 lakh votes were polled, with 15,000 voters choosing NOTA. The NDA candidate secured victory by a slim margin of 48 votes after a recount.
- NCPSP’s Impressive Strike Rate: The Nationalist Congress Party’s Sharad Pawar faction achieved an 80% strike rate, winning 8 out of 10 seats. This represents a doubling of their seat count compared to the 2019 General Elections.
- VBA’s Impact and Vote Share: The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) successfully impacted the MVA candidates in constituencies like Buldhana, Mumbai North West Akola, Hatkanagle. MVA would have won in these 4 seats if VBA would have been with them. In 36 constituencies, VBA lost its deposit, People have rejected them evidently. [2]
- SHS Cadre’s Growing Vote Share: Combining the vote share of the SHS UBT (16.7%) and the SHS (12.9%), the SHS cadre has grown, securing 29.6% of the vote. This is an improvement from their 2019 share of 23.5%.
- NCP Cadre’s decreasing Vote Share: Conversely, the combined vote share of the NCP SP (10.27%) and NCP AP(3.6%) is 13.87%, lower than their 2019 share of 15.66%. [3]
- Narrow Margins in 2024 Elections: In the 2024 elections, there are 25 constituencies with margins of less than a lakh, compared to 12 in 2019. Notably, 6 seats were won with margins of less than 20,000 votes.
- Manoj Jarange Factor: The undercurrent result of the Maratha mobilization was evident in Beed constituency whereas in other seats, the soft effect was experienced. 26 out of 48 MPs from Maharashtra are from Maratha community.
2. Uttar Pradesh
| Uttar Pradesh | ||
| Party | Vote Share in 2024 | Gain/Loss of seats as compared to 2019 GE |
| Bharatiya Janta Party | 41.37% | -29 |
| Bahujan Samaj Party | 9.39% | -10 |
| Samajwadi Party | 33.59% | +32 |
| Apna Dal (Soneylal) | 0.92% | -1 |
| Indian National Congress | 9.46% | +5 |
| RLD | – | +2 |
| Azad Samaj Party | – | +1 |
- Decline of BSP: The decline of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) significantly benefited the Samajwadi Party (SP). Akhilesh Yadav’s strategic ticket distribution played a crucial role, reshaping the image of the Muslim-Yadav party.
- BSP’s Impact Despite No Seats: Although the BSP failed to secure any seats, it significantly impacted 16 constituencies where it received more votes than the margin of victory. BSP’s vote share of 9.39% is equal to that of the Indian National Congress (INC) at 9.45%.
- Role of Jatav Voters and Azad Samaj Party: Jatav voters played a significant role in the election. Looking ahead, the role of the Azad Samaj Party, led by Chandra Shekhar Ravan, will be crucial.
- Shift in Amethi’s politics: The Amethi seat was won by a margin of 167,196 votes, surpassing Prime Minister Modi’s lead in Varanasi (152,513 votes). Despite questions about the Indian National Congress (INC) not fielding a Gandhi candidate in Amethi, their loyalist secured victory against former cabinet minister Smriti Irani.
- Consolidation of Muslim Votes and AIMIM:
- Muslim votes stood strongly behind the INDIA alliance, especially since the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) was not in the picture failing to make a dent to INDIA alliance.
- Owaisi’s AIMIM has allied with Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) under the banner of P.D.M (Backward, Dalit, and Muslim).
- In the 2022 assembly elections, AIMIM fielded candidates on 95 seats, securing over 4.5 lakh votes. [4]
- Faizabad’s Noteworthy Loss: The Faizabad constituency (which includes Ayodhya city) witnessed a significant victory for the Samajwadi Party (SP), with a hefty margin of 54,000 votes. This result drew attention to the Ram Mandir project, where many people were rehabilitated after the demolition of small temples and houses.
- SC Reserved Seats Distribution: Out of the 17 SC reserved seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured victory in 8 seats, while Akhilesh Yadav’s SP won 7 seats. The remaining seats were won by the INC and the Azad Samaj Party (ASP). [5]
- Narrow Margins in Key Contests: A total of 9 seats were won with margins of less than 20,000 votes, with 6 of them decided by less than 5,000 votes.
3. Bihar
| Bihar | ||
| Party | Vote Share in 2024 | Gain/Loss of seats as compared to 2019 GE |
| Bharatiya Janta Party | 20.52% | -5 |
| Janata Dal (United) | 18.52% | -4 |
| Lok Jan Shakti Party | 6.47% | -1 |
| Indian National Congress | 9.2% | +2 |
| RJD | 22.14% | +4 |
| CPI(ML) | 2.99% | +2 |
| IND | – | +1 |
| HAM | – | +1 |
- Tejashwi Yadav’s Massive Rallies in Bihar: A Game-Changer for His Party
- Tejashwi Yadav’s mammoth rallies in Bihar played a pivotal role in boosting his party’s vote share by approximately 7% and securing four additional constituencies.
- The sheer scale and impact of these rallies underscored Yadav’s growing influence in the state’s political landscape.
- CPI(M) Makes Inroads: The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) secured a 2% vote share, resulting in two constituencies.
- BJP and JD(U) Share the Spoils: Nitish Kumar’s Comeback
- Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) secured 12 constituencies each. For Nitish Kumar, this outcome marks a significant turnaround, especially considering the damage to his image after rejoining the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
- Kumar’s ability to regain political ground underscores his strategic acumen and resilience.
- Comparing with 2014, 2019 GE
- In the 2014 elections, the BJP managed to secure 23 seats independently, while the JD(U) secured only 2 seats. This historical context sheds light on the evolving dynamics of Bihar’s political landscape.
- In the 2019 elections, BJP and JDU fought in alliance and secured 39 seats out of 40 seats.
4. West Bengal
| West Bengal | ||
| Party | Vote Share in 2024 | Gain/Loss of seats as compared to 2019 GE |
| AITC | 45.76% | +7 |
| BJP | 38.73% | -6 |
| INC | 4.68% | -1 |
- Bipolar Election in West Bengal: AITC vs. BJP
- The recent election in West Bengal was a head-to-head contest between the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
- Despite disappointing predictions by pollsters, the AITC managed to increase its seat count from 22 to 29 compared to the 2019 General Elections, with a 2% rise in vote share.
- The BJP, on the other hand, saw a decline from 18 to 12 constituencies and lost 2% of its vote share.
- Potential Alliance Impact: A primary analysis suggests that if the AITC (with a 45.76% vote share) had collaborated with the Indian National Congress (INC, with a 4.68% vote share), the INDIA alliance could have gained additional seats.
- CPI(M): The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) secured a 2% vote share in the election without securing any constituency.
- Factors Behind AITC’s Success: AITC’s success can be attributed to effective implementation of schemes targeting minorities, women, and marginalized sections of society.
- Equation in between Judiciary and BJP: Open statements by retired high court judges expressing alignment with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and joining the BJP raised questions about the BJP’s alliance with the judiciary. People questioned the legal activities against AITC leaders and started questioning about the bias. [6]
- Opposition Narrative on Funding and Cooperation: The opposition successfully conveyed to voters that the central government had reduced funding and was uncooperative with the West Bengal government.
- Sandeshkhali Incident and Barisat PC: Despite national media attention on the Sandeshkhali incident, it did not help the BJP win the Barisat parliamentary constituency. The AITC candidate secured victory with a lead of over 3 lakh votes. [7]
References
- Kumar, Pradip. “Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections: BJP-led alliance falters in Vidarbha.” Hindustan Times, 04 June 2024, p. 1. https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/mumbai-news/maharashtra-lok-sabha-elections-bjp-led-alliance-falters-in-vidarbha-101717518836840.html.
- Alone, Umesh. “लोकसभा निवडणुकीत राज्यात ‘वंचित फॅक्टर’ निष्प्रभ, 36 मतदारसंघात डिपॉझिट जप्त.” ABP Maza, 06 June 2024, p. 1. https://marathi.abplive.com/elections/prakash-ambedkar-vanchit-bahujan-aghadi-party-36-candidates-lost-security-deposits-maharashtra-lok-sabha-result-2024-1288477.
- ECI. General Election to Parliamentary Constituencies: Trends & Results June-2024. ECI. ECI, https://results.eci.gov.in/PcResultGenJune2024/index.htm.
- ANI. “Lok Sabha Elections: AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi urges voters to vote without fear, The Economic Times, 24 May 2024, p. 1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/uttar-pradesh/lok-sabha-elections-aimim-chief-asaduddin-owaisi-urges-voters-to-vote-without-fear/articleshow/110384197.cms?from=mdr.
- PTI, editor. BJP wins 8 of 17 SC-reserved seats in UP lowest in last three polls. –, https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/national/2024/06/05/eln125-elections-up-result-key-reserved-seats.html.
- Raman, Anuradha. “Kapil Sibal: ‘We have judges who after retirement say they were part of RSS and want to go back to it.’” Frontline, 23 May 2024, https://frontline.thehindu.com/interviews/kapil-sibal-judges-retirement-rss-bjp-congress-judicial-crisis/article68207746.ece. Accessed 7 June 2024.7. Chakraborti, Sanjib. “Sandeshkhali Plot.” Times of India, 5 June 2024, p. 1. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/bjp-loses-sandeshkhali-plot-and-basirhat-ls-constituency/articleshow/110715160.cms.
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